Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 3:51:49 GMT -5
Before last week's agreement between kyiv and Moscow to ship wheat and other products from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, the prices of many foodstuffs had already been falling for some time. Fears of a global economic recession, a good harvest in Russia and hopes of reviving grain trade have pushed prices down.
Notwithstanding the above, the fall in prices does not mean that the food crisis is over, since the ongoing war is only one of the factors that could increase malnutrition rates in the coming years.
The conflict in Ukraine occurred at a time when food prices were already rising, mainly due to droughts affecting food-producing countries and supply chains, which have not yet recovered after the shock of the pandemic. .
The war has been a great Ecuador Mobile Number List drag on global food production. With Ukrainian ports blocked, export volumes have dropped significantly. In June, the country exported just under 1 million tons of wheat, corn and barley, 40% less than in the same month in 2021, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture.
On the other hand, the harvest in Ukraine began this month, but if producers cannot sell their grains, in 2023 they will not be able to invest in seeds and fertilizers for the next harvest. In addition, rising energy prices, which are expected to continue rising through the winter, have also affected the production of nitrogen fertilizers, key for crops.
The main food concern so far has been the supply of grains, especially wheat and vegetable oils, of which Ukraine is a major exporter, but the problem could soon extend to rice, which is a staple of Asia's diet. .
For now, the main producing countries have high stocks, such as India, Thailand and Vietnam. However, if the cost of wheat prompts more consumers to turn to rice as a substitute, rice producers are likely to restrict exports.
Specifically, only about 10% of total world production is exported, so a restriction by any exporter can have a large impact on the international price. This already happened in 2007 and 2008, when export restrictions imposed by India and Vietnam led to prices doubling.
Before the Russian invasion and due to the pandemic, droughts and other regional conflicts, some 770 million people were affected by hunger in 2021, the highest number since 2006, according to the United Nations Agriculture and Food Organization. feeding.
The FAO predicts that the war in Ukraine will increase the number of undernourished people by up to 13 million this year and by another 17 million in 2023. According to the World Bank, for every percentage point increase in food prices, 10 million more people will suffer extreme hunger.
This situation mainly affects much of Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia, where consumption of basic products exceeds local production and, therefore, it is the countries in these regions that are most exposed to increases in world prices. whose economies are simultaneously being affected by the depreciation of their currencies.